Trump's gamble on Ken Paxton backfires as Democrat pulls off historic Texas Senate upset

Democrats just made history in Texas.

President Donald Trump’s gamble on Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a strong ally of the president’s, backfired on him after Texas state Rep. James Talarico pulled off an upset to score Democrats their first Senate seat from the Lone Star State in nearly four decades.

The Fox News Decision Desk called the Texas Senate race in Talarico's favor shortly after 11 p.m. ET Tuesday night.

The live music rarely stopped Tuesday at Talarico’s election night party, except for when it was confirmed that the insurgent Democrat had toppled Paxton. 

News of his victory replaced the thundering music with an eruption of cheers, chants of USA and a wave of joy that reverberated through the event space. Even Talarico’s most staunch, four-legged supporter, Kodak, was roused from a nap. His owner told Fox News Digital that the canine fan had voted for Talarico earlier that day.

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It comes after Trump opted to back Paxton over longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, earlier this year, who Republicans in Washington, D.C., believed would be a better candidate during a midterm cycle in which political headwinds, spurred by economic stress and war, pushed back against the party in power.

Cornyn posted on X when Talarico won, "The voters have spoken, and I want to extend my congratulations to James Talarico on his election to the U.S. Senate. I look forward to meeting him and offering my assistance with his transition as he prepares to serve Texans in the U.S. Senate."

Trump made near-weekly visits to the Lone Star State, and his deep-pocketed war chest, MAGA Inc., along with national Republicans, dumped hundreds of millions of dollars to support Paxton’s struggling campaign.

But it was not enough to overcome the insurgent Talarico, who styled himself a moderate dedicated to representing Texans and not Democratic interests, like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s, D-N.Y., in Washington.

It was a bitter campaign from start to finish, with Talarico painting Paxton as unfit to serve following several allegations of corruption, including his impeachment for alleged corruption by the Texas House. He was later acquitted by the Texas Senate.

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"This Senate seat has been held by some of the finest Texans," Talarico said. "Ken Paxton should be nowhere near Lyndon Johnson's Senate seat. Ken Paxton should be nowhere near Sam Houston's Senate seat."

Paxton, Trump and national Republicans painted Talarico as a "communist" and a vegan in BBQ-loving Texas and zeroed in on his support for the transgender community while in the Texas Legislature, most notably his floor speech on God being "nonbinary."

"I'm not asking you to imagine what I do as your U.S. senator," Paxton told voters at a rally ahead of Election Day. "I'm asking you to look at my record and then compare it to another guy, James Talarico, the most radical Democrat ever to run statewide, bar none.

"And no matter how many commercials he runs lying about his record, James Talarico is a, simply put, a Democratic Socialist just like AOC. And just like the New York mayor, Mamdani."

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Talarico even scored a nickname from Trump.

"The name happens to be ‘Talafreako’ because he is one of the worst candidates I have ever seen," Trump said ahead of the GOP’s midterm convention largely meant to bolster Paxton’s struggling campaign.

Nonetheless, there was a schism within the GOP caused by Trump picking Paxton over Cornyn, and the longtime lawmaker made it clear that he would not be in Paxton’s corner campaigning for him after losing a bloody and bitter primary fight earlier this year.

"I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton to risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years," Cornyn said after losing his primary earlier this year.

"Judgment Day is coming for Ken Paxton."

The news comes on a brutal midterm election night for Republicans at both the state and federal levels. At the time of the race call, Democrats were already projected to win control of the House majority.

And the Fox News Decision Desk projected Texas Gov. Greg Abbott losing to his Democrat challenger, Gina Hinojosa, at the same time.